Iran Crisis Sends Shockwaves to Africa: From the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea
A widening Middle East conflict between Iran and a US-led coalition is sending shockwaves across Africa, with economists and security analysts warning that the continent faces a twin threat to its energy supplies and maritime trade routes — even without a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The warnings come as the Iran conflict enters its second month. Although attention has focused heavily on the strategic waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, African policymakers are increasingly anxious about a second, potentially more dangerous chokepoint: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait separating the Horn of Africa from the Arabian Peninsula.
Why Africa Cannot Afford to Ignore Hormuz
The numbers are stark. Africa, and especially sub-Saharan Africa, relies disproportionately on Middle Eastern oil and refined fuels. Countries from Nigeria to Kenya to South Africa import significant volumes of crude and petroleum products through shipping lanes that pass either through the Strait of Hormuz directly or through the Red Sea corridor that connects to it.
A partial or full closure of Hormuz — which analysts estimate would take between three and six months to meaningfully impact global supply chains — could see fuel import costs surge across the continent. For economies already under pressure from currency weakness and external debt servicing, the timing could not be worse.
“Even if the strait is not fully closed, the insurance costs, the freight premiums, the rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope — all of that adds up to a significant supply shock for countries with very limited fiscal headroom,” said one London-based emerging markets economist.
The Red Sea Second Front
Even more immediately dangerous for African states is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway between Djibouti and Eritrea through which an estimated 15 percent of global trade passes. Yemen’s Houthi movement — an Iranian proxy that has periodically disrupted Red Sea shipping — has been emboldened by the wider conflict.
In recent weeks, the Houthis have signalled their intention to resume and intensify attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Already, several major shipping lines had reinstated Cape of Good Hope routing that they adopted after the initial Red Sea disruption in 2024 — but a renewed Houthi campaign threatens to close the corridor entirely for African trade routes linking the continent’s eastern seaboard to European and Asian markets.
African Economies Brace for Impact
African governments are watching the situation closely, with finance ministries convening emergency meetings to model contingency scenarios. The African Development Bank has cautioned that the continent’s projected 2026 growth rate could be reduced by between 0.3 and 0.8 percentage points depending on the duration and severity of the disruption.
Some analysts see a potential upside for African oil producers, particularly Nigeria and Angola, if global prices spike as a result of Middle East supply concerns. But even there, the picture is complicated — higher oil revenues could be offset by the increased cost of importing refined fuels, which most African countries do not produce in sufficient quantities.
For now, the immediate risk is the Red Sea. African states bordering the Horn of Africa are already dealing with multiple crises simultaneously — conflict in Sudan, instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and the ongoing economic strain of displacement and food insecurity. A renewed maritime threat is the last thing the region needs.