The International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could shave 0.2 percentage points off Africa’s economic growth in 2026, reversing some of the hard-won gains the continent achieved last year.
Speaking at the IMF African Department press briefing in Washington D.C. on April 16, 2026, Director Abebe Aemro Selassie presented the April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, titled ‘Hard Won Gains Under Pressure.’ The report reveals that while the continent entered 2026 with its strongest economic momentum in a decade—registering 4.5 percent growth in 2025—the Middle East crisis has dramatically altered the landscape.
The war has sent oil, gas, and fertilizer prices surging, disrupted shipping routes, and rattled financial markets. Eighty percent of Africa’s oil imports come from the Middle East region, and 50 percent of refined petroleum. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has compounded these disruptions, significantly impacting transport and trade across the continent.
Director Selassie stated: The region entered 2026 with the strongest economic momentum it had seen in a decade. And then came the war. How to hold the line, preserving hard-won gains while absorbing yet another shock, is the central challenge.
The IMF has revised its Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast downward to 4.3 percent for 2026—0.3 percentage points below pre-war projections. Median inflation is expected to rise to 5 percent by year-end, up from 3.4 percent at the end of 2025. However, the impact is highly uneven: oil exporters may benefit from higher revenues, while oil importers—particularly fragile states—face deteriorating trade balances and soaring living costs.
The report also highlights that this shock arrives on top of a sharp, unprecedented decline in official development assistance, which is compounding pressures on the continent’s most vulnerable economies.
The African Development Bank, in a joint policy document with the African Union Commission, UNECA, and UNDP, has urged African governments to avoid panic-driven decisions that could destabilize fiscal balances. The report recommends targeted social protection measures, strategic inflation management, and prudent management of any windfall revenues by oil-exporting countries. Critically, governments should avoid broad-based subsidies that could worsen long-term fiscal deficits.
The joint report also calls for accelerated operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area and diversification of energy sources, including faster investment in renewables and gas sector development.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed stressed the need to safeguard gains already achieved at the continental level. The IMF report’s key message: Africa’s policy choices in the coming months will determine whether the gains of 2025 are preserved or eroded by overlapping global crises.