African governments have imposed sharp fuel price increases across the continent as the Iran war sends global oil prices surging, threatening to spark inflation that could erode household purchasing power and stall economic recovery in some of the world’s most vulnerable economies.
Brent crude oil prices have surged to around $80–82 per barrel since hostilities escalated, with the World Bank warning that prices could average $86 a barrel throughout 2026 — a sharp jump from the $69 average recorded in 2025. The trajectory has alarmed finance ministers and central bank governors from Lagos to Nairobi.
Africa imports the vast majority of its refined petroleum products, leaving the continent particularly exposed to supply chain disruptions and price swings in global markets. Unlike oil-producing nations, consumer countries have little leverage and few buffers.
Ghana raised petrol prices by around 15% and diesel by approximately 19% in a single fortnightly adjustment. President John Mahama said his government was considering cushioning measures, including potential supply agreements with Nigeria’s Dangote refinery to secure alternative refined fuel sources — Ghana currently imports about 70% of its refined fuel.
Malawi imposed even steeper increases, with petrol rising 34% and diesel 35% in a single move. Tanzania hiked fuel prices by 33% in Dar-es-Salaam, while Mauritania raised petrol by 15.3% and diesel by 10%, offsetting the impact on vulnerable households with a minimum wage increase and cash transfers to low-income families — an approach economists have cautiously welcomed as a model for others to follow.
South Africa, one of the continent’s largest economies, took the unusual step of cutting its fuel levy for one month to limit pump price increases, after trade unions and business groups pressured the government to intervene.
The World Bank has warned that the Iran conflict represents the largest energy price shock since 2022, and that African economies — already burdened by debt servicing and currency weakness — face a difficult balancing act between absorbing external price shocks and protecting the most vulnerable citizens.