France has warned that Islamist extremist groups are filling the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western counterterrorism forces from the Sahel, with militants now active across a stretch of territory from Burkina Faso to central Mali that was previously considered relatively stable. Speaking in Paris, French diplomatic and defence officials said the acceleration of attacks in recent months — including Friday’s coordinated assault on Bamako — pointed to a deliberate strategy by jihadist networks to exploit the departure of French Barkhane forces and the drawn-down UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA. “The groups we thought we had contained are no longer contained,” one senior French official told journalists. “They have more freedom of movement, more safe harbour, and they are learning from each other’s tactics.”
The warning comes as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all deepened their security partnerships with Russia, relying heavily on the Wagner Group and regular Russian military advisors. Critics of that approach say it has reduced the flow of intelligence and operational coordination with Western powers that once kept jihadist cells under pressure. The Russian presence has also been linked to allegations of civilian casualties that have further alienated local populations — a development that security analysts say plays directly into the hands of extremist recruiters.
France’s Retreated Footprint
France’s engagement in the Sahel — once described by President Emmanuel Macron as the centrepiece of his African policy — has all but evaporated following the junta-led ousters of French-backed governments in Mali (2020), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023). France maintains bases in Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon but has withdrawn its combat troops from the region entirely. The United States, which had a significant drone and intelligence footprint in the Sahel centred on Niger’s Air Base 101 in Niamey, has likewise reduced its presence following coups in Niamey and N’Djamena.
A Security Architecture Collapses
Regional analysts say the cumulative effect is a collapse of the multi-layered security architecture that kept jihadist expansion in check throughout the 2010s. Groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) are now operating with near impunity across a corridor stretching from southern Algeria to northern Nigeria. The UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for West Africa and the Sahel has called for urgent international attention to what she described as a “quietly unfolding catastrophe.”
Northbound migrants from across Sub-Saharan Africa traverse Sahelian territory on their way to Libya and the Mediterranean — a journey that has become more dangerous as jihadist groups charge tolls at checkpoints they have erected along smuggling routes. Narcotics trafficking, particularly the methamphetamines that have flooded West African markets in recent years, also moves through the same corridors. French officials note privately that the intelligence picture they once maintained — built over a decade of sustained operations — has deteriorated sharply since the ousters of the pro-Western governments. The French warning reflects a genuine assessment within Paris that the security situation in the Sahel is deteriorating in ways that will take years to reverse.