For nearly twenty-five years, the African Growth and Opportunity Act has been the cornerstone of US economic engagement with sub-Saharan Africa. It has allowed eligible African nations to export thousands of products to the United States duty-free — a gesture of preferential trade that successive American administrations have framed as a cornerstone of Africa policy. But the law expires in 2025, and the signals coming from Washington about whether and in what form it will be renewed are incoherent almost by design.
Meanwhile, China — which has no such legislative drama — has been systematically expanding its own preferential access programme. Beijing Minerals for Infrastructure deals have been documented across a dozen African nations. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation meets on a predictable schedule with predictable outcomes. And this year, China quietly extended its zero-tariff programme covering over 98 percent of products from least-developed African nations, expanding the range of processed goods eligible — precisely the kind of value addition that AGOA was supposed to incentivise.
What AGOA Actually Does — and Who It Benefits
The preference scheme covers roughly 1,800 product categories, from agricultural goods to textiles to certain manufactured items. Its biggest success story is South Africa automotive export sector, which grew substantially under AGOA duty-free access for components. Apparel exports from nations like Lesotho, Kenya, and Mauritius have created jobs in manufacturing sectors that would struggle to compete globally on price alone.
The problem is that AGOA is explicitly temporary and explicitly political. Congress must re-authorise it. The executive branch can delist countries for governance violations. The Trump administration, in particular, has signalled deep ambivalence about the entire premise — treating African nations as preferenced trading partners sits awkwardly with an America First trade philosophy that is suspicious of any trade arrangement that does not deliver immediate, measurable American benefits.
Why China Model Is Working Better, Right Now
China approach to African trade is not charity, and it is not particularly generous by market standards. But it is reliable, predictable, and backed by infrastructure investment that changes what African nations can actually produce. The Standard Gauge Railway projects in Kenya and Ethiopia were as much about opening economic corridors as they were about transportation. The Lobito Corridor in Angola and Zambia is positioning itself as a critical minerals export route to Atlantic ports.
These projects come with Chinese engineering contracts, Chinese equipment, and Chinese financing. They also come with long-term supply agreements that make the mathematics of extraction and export work for both sides. Africa extractive sector exports have surged partly because of these infrastructure linkages.
China zero-tariff expansion this year deliberately targets processed and semi-processed goods — exactly the category where African nations could, given time and investment, develop competitive advantage. The contrast with AGOA, which in practice benefits primarily large South African and Kenyan exporters with existing manufacturing bases, is becoming more pronounced.
The Road Ahead for African Trade Sovereignty
African nations are increasingly aware of the irony: the continent that generates significant global demand for manufactured goods is still largely a raw materials supplier in global trade. AGOA has not changed that structural reality. China expanding access creates an alternative framework — one that is also imperfect but which functions more predictably.
The continental free trade area that was launched in 2019 remains the most ambitious structural project, but it has been held back by tariff disputes, regulatory fragmentation, and the slow pace of national ratification. Meanwhile, the bilateral deals — whether with the European Union through the Economic Partnership Agreements, with China through the FOCAC framework, or now with a potentially sclerotic AGOA renewal process — increasingly define the terms of Africa trade relationships.
In the short term, Africa benefits from having multiple suitors. But the continent long-term economic interest is in building the productive capacity to negotiate as a bloc rather than accepting the terms different powers offer in bilateral settings.
