France’s accelerated military withdrawal from the Sahel has left a significant security vacuum that Islamist extremist groups are already moving to fill, according to a new threat assessment released Friday by a leading European security consultancy.
Paris completed the final phase of its Barkhane operation exit from Mali in 2023 and has since scaled back its footprint across the Sahel, cutting troop levels in Niger and drawing down contingents in Burkina Faso. The departure created an operational gap that regional forces have struggled to plug.
The Islamic State (IS) Sahel Province and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) have both expanded their area of operations since late 2024, exploiting reduced surveillance of movement corridors between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
The JNIM, an al-Qaeda-affiliated coalition, has notably consolidated control over parts of the Mopti-Gao axis in Mali and extended its reach toward the Nigerian border.
The vacuum is not being filled solely by militants. Russian-linked private military contractors have expanded their presence in Mali, filling roles previously held by French or UN forces.
African security analysts argue that the international community’s response remains structurally inadequate. Governance deficits, cross-border criminal networks, and climate-driven resource competition are all fuel for these groups.
The report recommends a doubling of regional early-warning capacity, faster integration of the AES defence framework, and renewed engagement between ECOWAS and the transitional governments in Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou.
