## Tanzania’s 518: Inside the Commission That Changed the Story of the 2025 Election
When Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan received the final report of the Commission of Inquiry into the post-election violence of October 2025, she called the events a scar on the nation’s conscience. The report, which documented the deaths of at least 518 people over a six-week period of unrest following the presidential election, was a landmark — both for Tanzania and for the broader story of democratic backsliding across East Africa.
### The Numbers That Shocked the Region
For decades, Tanzania occupied an unusual position in East African politics: a country where elections happened regularly, power changed hands with some predictability, and the ruling party enjoyed dominance without the scale of violence seen in neighboring Kenya or Uganda. The October 2025 polls shattered that self-image.
According to the Commission — appointed by President Suluhu Hassan herself in November 2025 after international pressure mounted — the violence was “planned and fuelled” by political actors, including some within the ruling CCM party and its youth wing. The report documented targeted attacks on opposition supporters, particularly in the Kilimanjaro, Mbeya, and Mara regions, as well as a systematic internet and communications blackout ordered by the government during the worst weeks of the unrest.
The casualties included not only those killed in street confrontations with security forces, but also individuals who died in custody, in hospital due to lack of medical access caused by the communications blackout, and in related inter-community clashes that exploited the power vacuum created by the unrest.
### What the Report Found
The Commission’s 340-page document detailed several categories of findings:
**State responsibility**: Security forces deployed in northern Tanzania used excessive force against protesters, firing live ammunition at crowds in at least seven documented incidents. The report recommended prosecution of specific officers named in witness testimonies.
**Political orchestration**: The Commission concluded that local CCM officials in several regions had organized militia-style “defense committees” that carried out attacks against perceived opposition strongholds. The report stopped short of accusing the national party leadership of ordering these attacks, but noted that the national leadership “failed to restrain” local actors.
**Institutional failures**: Police stations in affected areas were overwhelmed, under-equipped, and in some cases complicit in the violence. The absence of a functioning early warning system — and the decision to suspend internet services — contributed directly to the scale of casualties.
**International dimensions**: Several witnesses told the Commission that foreign actors provided financial and logistical support to specific political networks during the election period. The report did not name the countries involved, citing insufficient evidence, but recommended further investigation.
### The President’s Response
President Suluhu Hassan’s public response was notable. Unlike leaders in neighboring countries who have dismissed or suppressed similar reports, she acknowledged the findings, expressed personal sorrow, and committed to implementing recommendations — including a reparations fund for victims’ families, institutional reforms within the police, and the establishment of a national peace and reconciliation dialogue.
Her response drew praise from the African Union and Western governments, but skepticism from domestic opposition groups and human rights organizations who noted that similar commitments had been made after prior episodes of election-related violence in Tanzania and had not been fulfilled.
The Commission recommended that the government establish a “truth and reconciliation process” within 18 months. So far, the timeline appears optimistic.
### The International Fallout
Tanzania’s standing in the region has been complicated by the report. Kenya and Uganda, both of which experienced their own election-related tensions in recent years, issued carefully worded statements expressing concern and calling for accountability. The African Union dispatched a fact-finding delegation in January 2026; its report is still pending.
Donor governments — including Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom — initiated reviews of security sector aid to Tanzania, though none moved to suspend assistance entirely. The European Union issued a statement saying it was “deeply concerned by the scale of the violence” while maintaining that engagement with the Suluhu Hassan government remained the most constructive path.
The forthcoming release of the full Commission report — which the government has promised to make public in full by June 2026 — will be a pivotal moment for Tanzania’s international credibility and for the Suluhu Hassan presidency’s claim to be charting a more accountable form of governance.
### What Comes Next
The report lands at a difficult moment for East African regional integration efforts. The East African Community — which Tanzania currently holds the rotating presidency of — was already grappling with financial stress and internal disagreements over South Sudan’s membership application. A credibility crisis in Tanzania’s democratic institutions could further complicate the bloc’s ability to present itself as a model for regional cooperation.
Within Tanzania itself, the report has opened a reckoning that was long overdue. The survivors of the October violence, the families of the dead, and the communities displaced by the unrest now face a choice: push for full accountability through legal channels, accept some form of mediated reconciliation, or continue to organize politically in a landscape where the ruling party remains dominant and space for opposition activity remains constrained.
The Commission’s work has done something significant — it has produced a document that cannot be denied, a record that future historians will cite, and a baseline against which the government’s subsequent actions will be measured. Whether that accountability translates into real change depends on political will that has not always been evident in Dar es Salaam.