Tinubu’s Second Term Ambition: What Nigeria’s Nomination Means for Africa’s Largest Economy
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has secured his party’s nomination to run for a second term, consolidating control over the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at a moment when the country faces a convergence of economic headwinds, security challenges, and social discontent that would challenge any leader — let alone one entering his eighties. The nomination, confirmed at a closed-door meeting of party delegates in Abuja, was largely expected. Tinubu, at 83, remains the dominant figure in Nigerian politics, and no serious challenger inside the APC has emerged. The more consequential question is whether the fractured opposition can mount anything resembling a credible alternative.
Tinubu’s first term was defined by two sweeping economic reforms that reshaped the daily lives of 220 million Nigerians: the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the naira exchange rate. Both measures were applauded by the IMF and the World Bank as necessary corrections to long-standing distortions. Both also triggered immediate and painful consequences. Inflation surged. The cost of transportation rose sharply. Food prices, already climbing before the reforms, became prohibitive for millions of families in a country where a large segment of the population lives on less than two dollars a day.
The government’s argument is that these short-term pains are the price of long-term stability. Nigeria’s foreign reserves have stabilised, and the naira — after a period of violent devaluation — has found a more competitive level. Foreign investors, long deterred by the multiple exchange rate system that made doing business in Nigeria unpredictable, have begun to show renewed interest. But for ordinary Nigerians, the lived experience of reform has been brutal. In Lagos, in Kano, in Port Harcourt, the cost-of-living crisis has become the defining political liability of Tinubu’s second term bid.
Security remains the other great challenge. Despite years of military operations, Boko Haram and ISIL-West Africa Province continue to stage attacks in the Northeast. Banditry has spread from the Northwest into previously stable regions, and kidnapping-for-ransom has become an industry. The farmer-herder conflict has escalated in several Middle Belt states, displacing communities and disrupting agriculture. Tinubu’s defenders argue these are deep-rooted inherited problems. His critics point to a consistent failure to show measurable improvement and ask whether a second term would be any different.
The opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), historically Nigeria’s other great political vehicle, is in disarray. Internal factionalism has prevented it from agreeing on a candidate, and the party’s finances are reportedly in disarray after several high-profile defections. Smaller parties like the Labour Party have energised some younger voters but lack the infrastructure to compete nationally. As the 2027 election approaches, Nigeria’s political landscape looks less like a contested race and more like a one-party consolidation with an unresolved opposition problem.