A newly formed Tigrayan rebel faction has emerged as a serious threat to Ethiopia’s fragile northern peace, according to regional security analysts and reporting from the International Crisis Group. The group has carried out cross-border raids in the Afar region over the past four months, engaging in firefights with forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) — the organisation the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement was designed to neutralise.
The emergence of this new militia raises urgent questions about whether the November 2022 peace deal — which ended a two-year war that killed an estimated half a million people — is already unravelling.
A Peace Agreement Under Strain
The Pretoria Agreement, brokered by the African Union, was always more of a ceasefire than a political settlement. It halted the fighting but left fundamental questions about power-sharing and transitional justice unresolved.
According to the International Crisis Group’s February 2026 briefing: “The new faction represents a generational grievance within Tigray. It is part political, part criminal, and deeply dangerous.”
Eritrea’s Shadow
The situation is complicated by Eritrea’s deepening involvement. Addis Ababa has accused Asmara of actively backing the new Tigrayan faction as a proxy to destabilise the TPLF.
“Eritrea has been given a free hand in northern Ethiopia by the federal government,” said one Horn of Africa security analyst. “That free hand is now being used to destabilise the very peace the federal government claimed to have secured.”
Ethiopia’s Fragile Position
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is navigating its most complex security environment since taking office in 2018. The Ethiopian National Defence Force has been stretched across multiple fronts with limited capacity to respond to new threats.
International Response
So far, the international response has been muted. “There is donor fatigue,” acknowledged Dr. Sara Mohamed of the University of Pretoria. “The world moved on from Tigray after the peace deal was signed. But peace deals are processes, not events — and this one is clearly in trouble.”