Ethiopia is preparing for a national election that international observers are already describing as likely to be among the least competitive in the country’s modern democratic history, with the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed projected to dominate the vote in most constituencies.
The election arrives amid a complex backdrop of lingering civil conflict in several regions, media repression, and a fragmented opposition landscape that has been dramatically reshaped since the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Most major opposition parties have either been banned, co-opted into the ruling Prosperity Party structure, or remain unable to campaign freely in large parts of the country.
Human rights organisations say the space for genuine political debate has narrowed considerably since Abiy first took office in 2018, when he released tens of thousands of political prisoners and opened the country to international media. However, those same observers note that his early reformist credentials have been severely eroded by the conflict in Tigray and the subsequent crackdowns in Oromia and Amhara regions, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions more.
The Ethiopian National Election Commission has registered thousands of candidates across dozens of parties, but analysts say the outcome in the vast majority of districts is effectively predetermined, given the ruling party’s control over state resources, the security apparatus, and most of the broadcast media landscape.
The vote is expected to test whether Ethiopia can hold meaningful elections while managing multiple security crises. Ongoing tensions in Oromia, periodic outbreaks of violence in the Amhara region, and the smouldering aftermath of the northern conflict all cast a shadow over the credibility of the exercise.
Western governments that once championed Abiy as a reformist exemplar are watching with considerable unease, with some diplomatic missions privately acknowledging they expect the vote to fall well short of international standards for a genuine democratic contest.