DR Congo: M23 Rebels Hold Goma and Bukavu as Peace Talks Yield Fragile Progress

Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo remains firmly under the control of M23 rebels despite a nominal peace framework signed in Qatar in late 2025, with tens of thousands of civilians trapped between advancing militant groups and a stretched government army. Goma, the capital of North Kivu province and home to nearly 800,000 people, has been in M23 hands since January 2025. The Tutsi-led rebel group, which the United Nations and the Congolese government say is backed by Rwanda, controls the city alongside nearby Bukavu in South Kivu.

Fighting has continued in the surrounding territories even after the November 2025 framework agreement brokered in Doha — the guns have never truly fallen silent, and the territory the rebels control has in some areas expanded rather than contracted since the signing.

The Numbers Behind the Crisis

The UN refugee agency UNHCR reports that more than 400,000 people have been displaced in the eastern Congo region since the current M23 offensive began in early 2022. Whole villages have been emptied. Farmers have abandoned their fields. Markets have shuttered. Goma, once a commercial hub for the Great Lakes region, now operates under de facto rebel administration, with Rwandan-backed authorities managing public services, collecting taxes, and maintaining a semblance of urban order — at least in the neighbourhoods that have not been abandoned.

Human rights groups have documented atrocities on both sides of the conflict. The UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO has reported targeted killings, sexual violence used as a weapon of war, and the forced recruitment of children by both M23 fighters and government-aligned militias. The cruelty has touched virtually every community in the affected territories.

The Rwanda Question

For years, Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of orchestrating the M23 rebellion. Kigali denies direct involvement, though UN experts have consistently documented the presence of Rwandan troops inside Congolese territory and the supply chains that sustain the rebels. In February 2026, MONUSCO acknowledged “some progress” in Doha-hosted peace talks but warned that military momentum on the ground remained firmly with the rebels.

Rwanda’s strategy in eastern Congo is broadly seen as part of a longer-term effort to secure its own security perimeter and to gain leverage over the vast mineral wealth of the region — including coltan, cobalt, and gold, all critical inputs in global technology supply chains. The calculation in Kigali appears to be that a client rebel administration in Goma and Bukavu is more valuable than any diplomatic settlement that would restore Kinshasa’s authority.

Civilians Caught in the Crossfire

For ordinary Congolese, the conflict is a daily emergency that does not pause for peace conferences. Schools have been destroyed. Health clinics looted. The UN World Food Programme has warned of famine conditions in several districts around Goma. Women and children make up the overwhelming majority of those displaced, many of them sheltering in overcrowded camps that lack adequate sanitation or protection.

Regional efforts through the East African Community and the African Union have produced little tangible relief on the ground. A proposed joint force has been delayed by political disagreements over command structure and funding. Meanwhile, the FARDC — the Congolese army — has struggled to regain momentum. Soldiers have complained publicly about inadequate pay, insufficient equipment, and unclear command. Several senior officers have been dismissed over alleged failures, creating a culture of caution that sometimes borders on paralysis.