From Africa’s periphery to the world’s centre
Africa’s security landscape has become one of the most volatile and complex on the planet. Over the past decade, political violence across the continent has nearly doubled, according to the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. What was once a collection of manageable regional conflicts has evolved into a sprawling, interconnected web of jihadist insurgencies, military coups, communal violence, and criminal networks that now stretch from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea.
The most alarming development is the transformation of the Sahel — comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — into the global epicentre of terrorism. These three countries alone account for a disproportionate share of worldwide terrorism-related deaths, with attacks intensifying year on year despite the presence of international counter-terrorism missions and, more recently, the deployment of Russia’s Africa Corps in Mali and Burkina Faso.
The spread of jihadist violence southward
What began as localised uprisings in northern Mali and Boko Haram’s brutal insurgency in northeastern Nigeria has metastasized into a much wider belt of instability. Jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have expanded their reach into coastal West African states, including Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. The pattern mirrors the historical spread of insurgencies across the Sahel and into the Lake Chad Basin, with each new zone of instability spawning further radicalisation and recruitment.
In East Africa, Al-Shabaab remains a persistent and deadly force in Somalia, carrying out regular attacks inside Kenya as part of its campaign to unseat the Somali federal government. The group has demonstrated an ability to strike at soft targets far beyond Somalia’s borders, including the deadly 2019 assault on a luxury hotel in Nairobi that killed 21 people.
Meanwhile, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo continues to be torn apart by the M23 rebellion, a Tutsi-led armed group that has seized vast territories and displaced hundreds of thousands. Northern Mozambique has also seen a resurgence of Islamist militants in areas that had previously been declared cleared of insurgent activity.
The coup contagion and its consequences
One of the most troubling trends of the past decade has been the wave of military coups that has swept across the Sahel and, more recently, extended into Gabon. Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon have all experienced military takeovers — with juntas in several cases promising improved security outcomes that have not materialised.
In some instances, the arrival of Russian private military contractors, most notably the Africa Corps, has filled gaps left by the departure of Western counter-terrorism missions. But the presence of foreign paramilitary forces has itself become a source of civilian harm, with widespread reports of abuse and the displacement of local populations.
The human cost
The numbers are staggering. Millions of Africans have been displaced by conflict, with Sudan, Ethiopia, the central Sahel, and eastern DRC bearing the heaviest burden. Entire communities have been destroyed, economies shattered, and an entire generation of children denied access to education and basic services.
Still, not all of Africa is in crisis. Countries such as Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and Mauritius have maintained relative stability, and analysts point to strong institutions, democratic governance, and effective security sector reforms as the distinguishing factors that have insulated these nations from the violence consuming their neighbours.
For the international community, the challenge is immense. The drivers of Africa’s security crisis are deeply rooted in poverty, governance failures, climate stress, and decades of underinvestment in state capacity. Addressing them will require far more than military solutions — it will demand a sustained, long-term commitment to building the institutions that keep societies safe.