West Africa’s imports of diesel and gasoil have declined significantly in April 2026, according to new trade data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, with the total volume recorded so far this month standing at approximately 899,000 metric tons — notably lower than the 1.355 million metric tons imported during March. The drop occurs even as Russia remains the dominant external supplier to the region, shipping 153,000 metric tons so far in April against 337,000 metric tons the previous month.
The decline in overall imports comes amid shifting dynamics in global fuel supply chains, with West African buyers adjusting to changing availability and price pressures from multiple directions simultaneously. While Russia’s market share has contracted in volume terms this month, it continues to dominate the external supply landscape, having delivered 3.4 million metric tons to West Africa throughout 2025 and approximately 1.3 million metric tons already in the current year to date.
A Complicated Picture: US Supplies Rise as India Disappears
The most notable development in April’s import data is a surge in shipments from the United States, which have reached 125,000 metric tons — the highest level since November 2024. This marks a significant shift, as US fuel exports to West Africa have historically been limited by logistics and price competitiveness. The current uptick suggests either changed pricing dynamics or new commercial relationships that are reshaping traditional trade flows.
At the same time, India — which had emerged as a significant diesel exporter to West Africa in recent months — has recorded zero shipments to the region so far in April. This absence is particularly striking given that India had been increasing its presence in West African fuel markets over the course of 2025 and early 2026, buoyed in part by the processing of discounted Russian crude at its refineries.
No shipments from India to West Africa recorded so far in April, following a period in which New Delhi had become an increasingly prominent player in regional fuel supply chains, reflects either a change in price competitiveness, a redirection of Indian refined product exports to other markets, or both.
The Dangote Factor: Africa’s Largest Refinery Goes Quiet
Compounding the complexity of the current picture is the continued absence of diesel and gasoil exports from the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, the continent’s largest such facility. Following March exports of 324,000 metric tons — the highest volume since December 2025 — the refinery has shipped nothing so far in April, raising questions about its production scheduling and the direction of its product flows.
The Dangote refinery, which has positioned itself as a transformative force in African energy production, has been a major supplier of refined products to West African markets over the past year. Any sustained reduction in its export activity would have implications for regional supply availability and pricing, particularly for countries that have come to depend on Nigerian refined products.
Structural Dependence on Russian Supply
Despite the monthly fluctuations in import volumes, Russia’s continued dominance of West Africa’s external fuel supply remains a structural feature of the regional energy market. Russian suppliers have built deep commercial relationships with West African importers over many years, offering competitive pricing and established logistics chains that have proven difficult for other suppliers to dislodge.
The combination of Russian crude processing through Indian refineries and direct Russian refined product exports has created a supply architecture that, while facing growing scrutiny over its geopolitical dimensions, continues to deliver volumes that meet West Africa’s energy needs. As the continent’s diesel consumption continues to grow, the question of how supply diversity can be achieved — and at what cost — remains largely unanswered by current market dynamics.
For now, the April data tells a story of seasonal adjustment, short-term price shifts, and the continued resilience of established trade relationships. Whether the contraction in overall imports signals a broader softening of demand or merely reflects temporary supply chain adjustments will become clearer as the month progresses and more data becomes available from the region’s ports and storage facilities.