Nigeria is facing its most severe fuel price crisis in years, with pump prices surging by as much as 65 percent — the steepest increase among major African economies — even as the Dangote Oil Refinery in Lagos touts its capacity to transform the nation’s energy landscape.
Despite the launch of Africa’s largest private refinery, Nigeria still imports a substantial share of its refined fuel needs. Much of the country’s own crude oil production is tied up in debt repayment arrangements with international oil companies, meaning petroleum is not freely available for local use.
Global oil supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict have pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, compounding Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities. Transport costs have risen sharply, food prices have doubled in some markets, and businesses are warning of sweeping operational cutbacks.
With unreliable electricity afflicting large parts of the country, millions of households depend on fuel-powered generators — making them especially vulnerable to pump price increases.
The government has resisted calls to reintroduce fuel subsidies, which cost $10 billion annually before their removal in 2023, arguing that subsidy regimes create market distortions. Instead, it is pursuing targeted cash transfers to the poorest households alongside accelerated investment in domestic refining capacity.