A month into the US-Israeli war in Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Africa’s energy map is being redrawn in real time — and Aliko Dangote’s giant Lekki refinery is emerging as the continent’s indispensable swing supplier.
The Dangote refinery, now operating at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has signed a landmark fuel supply agreement with Côte d’Ivoire’s state refiner, brokered through Sahara Group. The Ivorian deal is the latest in a series of regional export contracts that have seen Dangote sell 456,000 tonnes of refined petroleum products to Tanzania, Cameroon, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire since the start of the Hormuz disruption.
The agreement reflects a profound shift in West African energy dynamics. Côte d’Ivoire, along with many of its neighbors, had historically relied on European refiners and long-haul imports to meet domestic fuel demand. Dangote’s proximity, scale, and willingness to supply under bilateral agreements have given Nigeria’s refining powerhouse a decisive advantage.
A Continent’s Energy Vulnerability
The war in Iran has placed enormous pressure on global oil and refined product markets. African countries, which import the majority of their refined fuels despite sitting on substantial crude reserves, have been hit particularly hard. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery — the continent’s largest — is now positioned as a strategic asset not just for Nigeria but for the entire sub-region.
A Quiet Revolution in African Energy Trade
Dangote’s refinery is also asserting its dominance in ways that are disrupting established international players. A fuel price war launched by Dangote has already begun to hurt TotalEnergies’ shareholder returns — an indication that Africa’s new refining capacity is actively capturing market share from incumbent international suppliers.
If the Dangote model of large-scale, Nigerian-based refining can sustain its supply to neighboring countries, it could catalyze a broader reconfiguration of African energy trade — away from north-south supply chains through European hubs, and toward east-west intra-African flows that keep value on the continent. For now, the immediate crisis has created the conditions for a breakthrough. Côte d’Ivoire is turning to Nigeria. Dangote is filling the gap.