A new economic report has sounded a stark alarm for Africa: the continent faces the risk of a sharper-than-expected growth slowdown in 2026 if the ongoing Middle East conflict — centred on Iran-Israel-US tensions — continues to escalate. The warning comes as global energy markets remain on edge, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively disrupted and oil prices trading well above $100 per barrel.
The report, published by an African development think tank and referenced by Reuters, projects that prolonged conflict lasting more than six months could shave up to 0.2 percentage points off Africa’s collective GDP growth — a significant dent for a continent that was already projected to grow at modest rates this year.
The Strait of Hormuz Factor
Africa’s vulnerability to the Hormuz crisis stems from its deep integration into global supply chains that pass through or near the Persian Gulf. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption catastrophic for import-dependent African economies.
Kenya, which imports a significant share of its fuel and manufactured goods through Gulf routes, has already reported supply chain pressures. Tanzania, Uganda, and other East African nations that rely on Red Sea and Gulf shipping lanes are experiencing freight delays and rising insurance premiums on cargo vessels.
Food and Fertiliser Prices Spike
Beyond energy, the conflict is driving up food prices across the continent. The Middle East is a critical market for African agricultural exports — fruits, vegetables, coffee, and flowers — and also a major supplier of fertilisers to African farmers. With shipping routes disrupted and insurance costs soaring, import costs for essential agricultural inputs are rising, threatening to reverse recent gains in food security.
Ethiopia, which imports significant volumes of fertilisers for its large agricultural sector, and Ghana, which relies on imported agricultural inputs for its cocoa and cereal industries, are among the most exposed.
Which Countries Are Most at Risk?
Countries with the highest current account deficits, heavy dependence on oil imports, and limited foreign exchange reserves are most vulnerable. Egypt — already battling a severe dollar shortage and high debt servicing costs — faces acute pressure as its import bill swells. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is somewhat cushioned by its domestic oil production but still exposed through refined petroleum product imports and the macro effects of global price volatility.
Oil exporters such as Angola, Algeria, and Libya, conversely, could see windfall gains in the near term — though longer-term demand destruction from a global slowdown could offset those benefits.
A Call for Regional Solutions
The African Union and regional economic communities such as ECOWAS and the East African Community have been urged to activate existing trade facilitation mechanisms to reduce the continent’s dependence on extra-continental supply chains. There are also renewed calls for accelerating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to build more resilient intra-African trade networks.
For millions of Africans, the conflict in the Middle East may seem a world away — but as this report makes clear, the ripples are already being felt in fuel queues, market prices, and farm input costs across the continent.