The images streaming out of Mali over the past week have been startling: black smoke rising over military bases, Al-Qaeda-affiliated fighters hoisting flags beside Tuareg separatist commanders, and checkpoints appearing on roads leading into Bamako. It is a remarkable convergence — two forces that have fought each other for years now fighting together, or at least not fighting each other. But analysts are warning that this alliance of convenience may be closer to its breaking point than its enemies inside the Malian military government would wish to believe.
The Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA), the main Tuareg separatist alliance, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the Al-Qaeda-linked insurgent group, have never been natural allies. The Tuareg separatists have historically pursued a secular, nationalist agenda centred on the creation of an independent Azawad in northern Mali. JNIM, by contrast, is driven by a radical Islamist vision that has no room for nationalist boundaries. Their cooperation against the Bamako military government is the product of extraordinary circumstances — not shared ideology.
The thing to understand is that these groups were killing each other as recently as 2023, said one Sahel security analyst who requested anonymity to speak freely. The CSP-DPA and JNIM fought pitched battles in Kidal. Now they’re flying flags side by side. That tells you everything about the fragility of the arrangement.
What Each Side Wants
The JNIM leadership has been explicit: they want an Islamic state. Their vision for Mali is one governed by sharia law, with no space for secular nationalism, minority rights, or democratic governance. The Tuareg separatists, while willing to tolerate a degree of Islamist social conservatism in exchange for battlefield cooperation, have shown no indication that they would accept the full-scale implementation of hardline sharia across a unified Azawad — let alone across the rest of Mali.
This divergence is not merely theoretical. In the areas they now jointly control, there are already reports of friction over governance, the treatment of non-Tuareg communities, and the handling of looted property. JNIM has moved quickly to install its own administrators in captured towns. The CSP-DPA, for its part, has sought to maintain a distinct command structure and political identity. Where those two visions collide — and they will — the alliance will be tested.
The Russian Factor
Perhaps the most consequential variable is the question of what role Russia’s Wagner Group, or its successor structures, will play going forward. Mali’s military government has relied heavily on Russian contractors for air support, training, and strategic advice. That relationship has not delivered the decisive results the junta promised when it expelled French forces in 2022. Insurgent attacks have multiplied, not diminished.
JNIM has been explicit in demanding that Russian forces withdraw from Mali entirely, framing them as occupiers alongside the Malian army itself. The Tuareg separatists, who have their own complex history with Moscow, have been less absolutist but no more supportive of an expanded Russian presence.
If the junta attempts to bring Russian forces back into the fight in a more aggressive way, it risks fracturing the fragile ceasefire arrangement with the CSP-DPA. If it accedes to the demand for withdrawal, it loses a key pillar of its military strategy. Either path carries significant risk.
What This Means for Africa
The implications extend well beyond Mali’s borders. The Sahel has become the primary arena for a struggle between competing visions of West African governance, and a successful JNIM-CSP-DPA offensive would represent a significant propaganda victory for jihadist movements across the region. Burkina Faso and Niger, both of which have experienced their own insurgencies, are watching closely.
For now, the alliance holds. But it is held together by opposition to something rather than agreement about anything. That is a foundation that tends to crack under the weight of victory.