A Tanzanian government-established commission of inquiry has officially confirmed that at least 518 people were killed in post-election violence that erupted following October 2025’s disputed presidential poll, in which President John Magufuli was declared the winner of a controversial race against opposition challenger Tundu Lissu. The commission’s report, presented to parliament after months of hearings involving more than 1,000 witnesses, found that the violence was “orchestrated and unlawful,” drawing sharp criticism from opposition parties who say the findings downplay state responsibility.
The commission, chaired by retired High Court judge Joseph Wembo, concluded that the worst violence occurred in areas known as opposition strongholds, particularly in northern and eastern Tanzania where support for Chadema, the main opposition party, is concentrated. Security forces deployed in those regions engaged in what the report described as “disproportionate use of force,” though it stopped short of explicitly naming senior government or security officials as responsible.
The October 2025 elections were among the most contentious in Tanzania’s modern history. Lissu, a former Chadema member who returned from self-imposed exile to contest the presidency, ran a campaign focused on corruption, democratic reform, and freedom of expression. The government’s response to his candidacy was swift and, according to rights groups, frequently violent. At least 30 Chadema officials were arrested in the weeks before the vote.
Official results gave Magufuli a third term with 63% of the vote, a result rejected by the opposition and independent observers from the African Union and Commonwealth, both of whom cited significant irregularities in vote tallying and the counting process.
The commission’s findings are likely to deepen Tanzania’s democratic crisis rather than resolve it. Chadema immediately rejected the report, saying it was a “government-controlled exercise designed to pre-empt international criminal investigations.” The party said the actual death toll exceeded 800 and that the commission had deliberately excluded testimony from families of victims and witnesses who could implicate senior officials.
Human rights organizations, many of which were denied access to affected areas during and after the violence, welcomed the commission’s acknowledgment that serious abuses occurred. However, they noted that the report’s focus on “orchestration” by opposition elements rather than security forces was a familiar script used by governments seeking to shift blame.
“The scale of what happened in Tanzania in October 2025 is not a story of opposition agitation—it is a story of state violence against citizens,” said Sarah Kpang, a researcher with Amnesty International’s East Africa office. “If the commission is serious about national healing, it needs to go further and name those responsible.”
International reaction to the report has been measured but pointed. The United States State Department issued a statement calling for accountability and judicial proceedings against those responsible for abuses. The European Union said it was “studying the report closely” ahead of a scheduled review of Tanzania’s trade preferences under the Everything But Arms scheme.
For Tanzania’s northern regions, where the worst violence played out, the report has reopened wounds that many families hoped would begin to heal. In cities like Arusha, Moshi, and Musoma, shops destroyed during the unrest have yet to be rebuilt, and several communities remain polarized along political lines. Local religious leaders have called for a national day of reflection, though it is unclear whether the government will endorse such an initiative.
The political fallout is also reshaping Tanzania’s governance landscape ahead of local elections scheduled for later this year. Chadema, weakened by the arrests and the electoral defeat, is undergoing an internal debate about whether to participate in future elections at all. Meanwhile, younger activists are pushing for a more confrontational stance.
Whether Tanzania can move toward genuine national reconciliation will depend in large part on whether there is genuine accountability—not just a commission report that acknowledges numbers but fails to deliver justice to victims’ families. For now, 518 names sit in an official document, each one representing a person whose death the state has at least acknowledged.