As South Africa inches toward a pivotal municipal election in late 2026 and the African National Congress (ANC) sharpens its knives for another internal succession war, President Cyril Ramaphosa finds himself at a crossroads. His economic reform programme — once hailed as a lifeline for a struggling economy — is now fighting for its own survival, caught between electoral headwinds, party factions, and the looming question of who will inherit his legacy when his term ends in 2027.
Reforms That Outlived Their Champion
Ramaphosa came to power in 2018 with the promise of economic revival. Over the past seven years, he has pushed through a series of structural reforms targeting energy, logistics, telecommunications, and the civil service. The results have been mixed — load shedding has been curtailed, some investment has returned, and the country remains an anchor of democratic stability in a turbulent region.
But the reforms were never truly Ramaphosa’s alone. They were implemented through a weak state, navigated around a fractious ANC, and often watered down by coalition partners and internal party resistance. The president’s ability to drive change depended heavily on his personal authority — authority that has eroded with each internal party battle and electoral setback.
The Succession Question
The 2027 ANC leadership contest looms large. Whoever succeeds Ramaphosa will inherit not just the presidency but also the direction of the reform agenda. Several factions within the ANC have already begun positioning themselves, with some openly questioning whether the reform trajectory serves the party’s broader political interests.
Critics within the ANC argue that the reforms have favoured big business and foreign investors at the expense of the party’s traditional working-class base. Others warn that abandoning the reform path would derail the little economic momentum the country has built. The tension between these two camps is set to define the next 18 months of internal ANC politics.
What Lies Ahead for South Africa
The municipal elections of 2026 will serve as a critical early warning signal. If the ANC performs poorly in major metros — as it did in previous local elections — Ramaphosa’s authority within the party will shrink further. A weakened president means a weakened reform agenda, and the risk of policy reversal or stagnation grows with each electoral disappointment.
The international community will be watching closely. South Africa remains the continent’s most diversified economy and a key partner for Western nations seeking to counter Chinese influence in the Global South. A reversal of Ramaphosa’s reforms would send a worrying message to investors and partners alike.
For now, the reform agenda survives — but barely. The next succession battle within the ANC may prove to be the final test of whether Ramaphosa’s economic vision has institutional roots deep enough to outlast the man who planted them.