Nigeria is now paying 65 percent more for petrol at the pump than it was at the start of 2026, making it the most expensive fuel market in Africa despite the celebrated launch of Africa’s largest oil refinery just two years ago. The sharp price increase, which has pushed the national average petrol price above 1,300 Nigerian naira per litre, has triggered fresh anger among Nigerian households already contending with the ripple effects of global economic uncertainty and a domestic currency that has lost ground against the dollar.
The disconnect between the Dangote Refinery’s much-touted launch and the reality of Nigeria’s fuel pricing highlights a painful structural truth: the $20 billion refinery in Lagos, though a genuine engineering achievement, was never going to single-handedly solve Nigeria’s fuel pricing problem. The refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has faced persistent challenges in sourcing enough crude oil at prices that allow it to operate efficiently. Until those supply chain and pricing issues are resolved, Nigeria remains exposed to global oil market swings — importing refined product when domestic production cannot keep pace.
Global crude oil prices have been pushed upward by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted shipping lanes and created uncertainty across commodity markets. For Nigeria, a country that imports a significant portion of its refined petroleum products even after the refinery’s opening, the result has been a sharp passthrough to consumers at the pump. The government has limited fiscal space to subsidize prices — a lesson from the expensive and ultimately unsustainable fuel subsidy regime that Nigeria only recently ended — leaving market prices to reflect international cost pressures.
The political consequences are already visible. Opposition figures have attacked the administration for failing to translate the refinery’s existence into tangible consumer relief. Trade union leaders have warned that the increased transport costs are feeding into broader inflation, hitting not just individual drivers but the entire supply chain for food and consumer goods. In a country where the minimum wage remains a subject of political contestation, a 65 percent jump in fuel costs represents a significant erosion of purchasing power for ordinary Nigerians.
The longer-term outlook depends on whether the Dangote Refinery can reach its full operational potential. Industry analysts believe that if the refinery achieves stable crude supply at reasonable prices, it could eventually insulate Nigeria from the worst of international fuel price volatility. In the short term, however, Nigerian drivers and households are bearing the cost of a global market that remains fundamentally unpredictable, and a domestic energy system that has not yet been able to fully leverage its newest and largest asset.
The situation is being watched closely by Nigeria’s neighbours. West Africa’s fuel pricing is interconnected — fuel smuggling across the Benin and Niger borders has historically been triggered when the price gap between Nigeria and neighbouring countries becomes wide enough to make it profitable. A persistent fuel price differential could once again trigger cross-border flows that drain Nigerian supply, creating shortages in border regions even as the national headline price continues to climb.