The Africa Supply Chain Confederation is warning that the continent is facing a mounting crisis at the fuel pump and in food markets, as the escalating disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint — send shockwaves through global supply chains.
Speaking on the crisis, ASCON President Ronald Mlalazi said the war involving Iran has moved from a geopolitical story to a supply chain shock — and fast. “During normal times, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” he noted. “Today, it’s partially blocked, militarised, and unpredictable. That matters more than most people realise, especially in Africa. This is not just an oil story. Yes, oil is the headline.”
The International Energy Agency reports that up to 30% of global oil flows are now affected — the largest disruption in oil market history. Analysts are openly discussing scenarios of USD 150-200 per barrel if the disruption persists over the next four to eight weeks.
**Beyond Oil: The Fertiliser Emergency**
But it is not only fuel that is at stake. The Strait of Hormuz also moves fertiliser, petrochemicals, plastics, and liquefied natural gas — and that is where Africa gets hit hardest, Mlalazi warned.
Across East and Southern Africa, dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains is structural, not optional. In parts of East Africa, over 50% of fertiliser imports come via these routes, and globally, up to one-third of fertiliser trade moves through Hormuz. Urea prices have already risen by 50% since the conflict began, with fertiliser shortages expected to impact planting cycles within weeks.
“That translates directly into higher food prices, lower yields, and increased inflation,” Mlalazi said. “In economies where food already dominates household spending, that’s not a marginal issue. It’s systemic.”
A March 30 report by the UN Trade and Development Agency (UNCTAD) confirmed the same pattern. The report found that energy markets have reacted immediately, with oil prices surging sharply and natural gas prices roughly doubling in Asia. UNCTAD flagged that Sudan imports 54% of its fertiliser through the Persian Gulf, while Tanzania and Kenya rely on the same route for 31% and 26% respectively.
**Logistics on the Brink**
Freight rates for oil tankers have risen by more than 90% since late February, bunker fuel prices have nearly doubled, and war risk insurance premiums have surged, with some insurers withdrawing coverage altogether for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf.
Major shipping lines have already rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times. “That means longer lead times, working capital pressure, and more stockouts,” Mlalazi said. “Diesel is the bloodstream of African logistics. As oil spikes, transport costs rise almost instantly.”
Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zambia are already implementing emergency measures, including subsidies and reserve releases. But Mlalazi warned: “The supply chain doesn’t break in one place; it ripples. The brutal reality is that Africa is a price taker. Most African economies are net importers of fuel and fertiliser. If the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable for another month, Africa will not simply absorb higher prices; it will contend with slower trade, tighter margins, and rising food insecurity.”
*Source: The Independent (Kampala) / AllAfrica / UNCTAD*